UK October CPI Inflation Expected to Cool, Potentially Easing Pressure on Monetary Policy
October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation year-on-year is forecasted at 3.6%, down from 3.8% in September, according to City economists. If confirmed, this would mark the first cooling of CPI inflation in five months. The lower inflation reading could provide Chancellor Rachel Reeves with more flexibility ahead of the autumn budget scheduled for 26 November 2025 and raise expectations of another Bank of England interest-rate cut.
Morningstar UK economist Grant Slade indicated that disinflation remains intact and suggested inflation likely peaked in September, driven largely by transport costs. Additional factors supporting this cooling trend include a weakening labour market and anchored long-term inflation expectations. Despite these positive signs, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that UK households will face the highest inflation rate among the G7 countries this year and next.
Official CPI figures are set to be released at 7:00, followed by data on house prices and rents from the Office for National Statistics at 9:30. Other notable releases include the Eurozone's final October inflation at 10:00, US housing starts at 13:30, and the Federal Reserve minutes at 19:00.
