US Oil Industry Prospects in Venezuela Post-Maduro Ouster Amid Ongoing Embargo
Former President Trump has claimed that US oil majors would invest billions of dollars to rebuild Venezuela's oil industry following the ouster of President Maduro, with reimbursement promised but no detailed plan provided. Despite this claim, ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips did not respond to requests for comment, while Chevron stated it remains in Venezuela and continues to comply with relevant laws and regulations. Chevron stands as the only US oil company still operating in Venezuela, a country which nationalized its oil industry about 50 years ago and later seized private arrangements made in 2007.
The US oil embargo on Venezuelan oil remains fully in effect according to Trump. Venezuela holds about 17% of the world’s oil reserves, though its current production is approximately 1 million barrels per day, roughly 1% of global output, a significant decline from its 1970s peak production of about 3.5 million barrels per day. Industry analysts estimate that an investment of around $110 billion would be needed to raise output back toward 2 million barrels per day by the early 2030s, according to Rystad Energy.
Observers are divided over whether major oil companies were consulted regarding the rebuilding plans; some suggest prior discussions likely took place, while others caution firms will be selective in their investments due to an oversupplied market and ongoing instability. Reports from Politico indicated officials linked potential compensation to seized assets. The overall situation is approached with caution due to Venezuela’s history of post-authoritarian transitions and prevailing concerns about the country's stability and governance.
