US Pressure on Venezuela Driven by Oil Interests Amid Sanctions and Drug-Trafficking Concerns
In December 2025, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro stated that US pressure on Venezuela is driven by a desire to seize its vast oil reserves. This follows the US seizure of a tanker and threats against other vessels under sanctions and allegations of drug trafficking.
Venezuela holds approximately 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the largest globally, yet current production stands at about 860,000 barrels per day as of November 2025, roughly one-third of its 2015 levels and less than 1% of global oil consumption.
Since 2015, sanctions alongside governance issues have severely limited investment in Venezuela's oil sector. The state oil company PDVSA has suffered from infrastructure degradation and staffing losses, which have constrained output. Chevron remains the only US-based producer operating under a Biden-era license since 2022 and accounts for about 20% of Venezuela’s oil production. The US administration has extended waivers to maintain exemptions for some companies.
US officials emphasize that their primary goal is to stop illegal drug trafficking rather than targeting oil resources. However, some observers suggest oil interests may also play a role. Publicly available evidence does not point to oil as the central aim of US policy.
Analysts note that lifting sanctions or regime change could benefit US companies, but barriers remain substantial. US refineries are interested in Venezuela's heavy crude oil, yet any expansion in production would require considerable investment and time. Wood Mackenzie projects that with external management and moderate investment, output could increase to around 2 million barrels per day within two years. Achieving higher levels would demand tens of billions of dollars and could take up to a decade.
Production growth is limited by infrastructure deficits, governance challenges, and market demand. Furthermore, the global demand outlook for oil is subdued and may decline in the late 2030s. Private firms would invest only if projects prove profitable, with OPEC dynamics and long project lead times complicating any rapid rebound in Venezuela's oil output.
