US Private Payroll Jobs Decline in November Amid Economic Uncertainty
ADP reported a decline of 32,000 private payroll jobs in November, a notable downturn following an upward revision of 47,000 jobs added in October. This contrasts with economists' expectations, who had anticipated a rise of 10,000 jobs after a 42,000 job rebound in October. The ADP report, developed in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, historically shows some divergence from the government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on private payrolls.
The official BLS employment report for November is scheduled for release on 16 December, having been delayed from the original date of 5 December due to a federal government shutdown. This report will include data on October's non-farm payrolls. However, the shutdown disrupted the household survey data collection used to calculate the October unemployment rate, which means that this rate will not be available.
Despite the ADP’s weaker payroll figures, first-time unemployment benefit claims have remained consistent with a labor market characterized by stability without significant hiring or firing. Economists have cited uncertainty linked to tariffs as a factor contributing to paralysis in the labor market.
For context, the economy had previously added 119,000 jobs in September, accompanied by a rise in the unemployment rate to a four-year high of 4.4%.
