Western Democracies and the Rise of Radical Nationalism: The UK Context
Western democracies are experiencing a drift toward radical nationalism, exemplified by the US White House strategy which advocates cultivating resistance inside European nations by supporting nationalist parties to undermine regional cooperation.
In Britain, Nigel Farage is positioned as a natural ally for a Trump-style approach, while Kemi Badenoch is seen as less aligned to this style. Reform UK emerges as the challenger to Conservative leadership, sharing anti-immigration and anti-establishment rhetoric with Farage. Although Farage relies on ex-Tory defectors, he publicly denies any formal pacts with the Conservatives, even though some private donor signals hint at potential arrangements.
The Conservative Party has adopted a hardline immigration stance, illustrated by a draft bill aimed at expelling thousands of legally settled people. However, Badenoch's support did not rise from this approach, and she seemingly cannot outbid Farage on issues relating to demographic concerns.
In response to private pressure from party grandees, Badenoch shifted her focus toward economic issues. Conservatives are attempting to capitalize on a perceived image of economic competence, bolstered by Reeves's budget, which frames Labour's fiscal policies as focused on taxing and spending for benefits.
Electoral dynamics surrounding a possible formal pact between the Tories and Reform UK remain uncertain. There is distrust on both sides regarding joint strategies to maximize seats, and the Reform brand risks being tainted by perceptions of Conservative continuity.
The broader Western trend reflects a decline of the center-right in the face of radical challengers. For Badenoch, the defining challenge lies in choosing whether to align with a foreign-influenced project or to defend British democracy against such external influences.
